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Industry confidence down in Dec. in 28 sectors: CNI survey


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A survey released Friday (Dec. 17) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) shows a drop in optimism among industrial entrepreneurs in 28 of the 29 sectors making up the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI in the original acronym) comparing December 2021 and December 2020. These, however, are the months in which the Christmas Bonus—or Thirteenth Salary, as it is referred to in Brazil—is paid, which increases consumption expectations. Compared to November, confidence rose in 23 sectors.

According to the manager of Economic Analysis at CNI, Marcelo Azevedo, the index measures business confidence for the next six months. For December, it also takes into account the effects the bonus will have over the period. “This is why December is a special month,” he told Agência Brasil.

Azevedo mentioned that the situation the country found itself in in December 2020 was even more exceptional due to the expectation that the Emergency Aid paid by the government would prove a “big boost” to the economy. “It was an atypical moment, with a series of stimuli to demand that led to stronger production,” Azevedo pointed out.

“The industry was operating above pre-pandemic levels because of the situation facing the people, who were directing part of their consumption to industrial products because of the aid. As a result, refilling stocks became necessary in a landscape where a quicker economic recovery was expected,” Azevedo added.

According to ICEI – Sector Results for December, 28 of the 29 sectors surveyed saw a drop in confidence compared to December 2020, even though the index remains above 50 points (“confident”) across all cases.

The sector of computer equipment, electronic products, and others fell the sharpest (-10.9 points), going from 64 to 53.1 points. “In this case, we have to take into account the fact that, at that time [December 2020], people were changing habits because of remote work. This movement happened and is now being reversed,” Marcelo Azevedo noted. In November 2021, the sector’s ICEI stood at 51.4 points.

The second sector that saw the most significant plunge in business confidence, December 2021 vs. December 2020, was textile products (-8.9, from 62.4 to 53.5). In November, the ICEI in this group was 52.6 points.

Next comes the ICEI for cellulose, paper, and paper products, down 8.6 points comparing December 2021 (55) with the same month in 2020 (63.6). Against November 2021’s 53.4 score, the index rose by 1.6 points.

Conversely, machinery and equipment experienced an 8.2 point slip from December last year, now scoring 57.9 points (in November, the ICEI was 56.8). Plastic products and non-metallic mineral products both registered an 8-point drop from December 2020.

The only sector in which confidence rose from December 2020 was printing and reproduction of recordings (up 3.5 points, from 57.7 to 61.2). Last November, the sector’s ICEI was reported at 58 points.

This article was translated using artificial intelligence and proofread by a human translator.

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